Saturday, May 23, 2009

Thinking unconventionally late in games

I was at the Braves/Diamondbacks game last Friday. The Braves won 4-3 and scored the walk off run in the bottom of the 9th on a Yunel Escobar sac fly. Right before the winning run was scored, AJ Hinch had a chance to make an unconventional managerial move that I think should be standard practice.

The situation:

Tie game (3-3) bottom of the 9th inning.
Braves have the bases loaded and there are no outs.
On third is Jordan Schafer. If you know the Braves you know Schafer is the fastest guy on the team (also you are impressed he was actually on base).

At this point AJ Hinch visited the mound to talk to his pitcher. This was the perfect opportunity to bring in a 5th infielder to cut down the run at the plate. Hinch did nothing, and Yunel Escobar hit a routine fly to center that Schaffer tagged on and won the game.

The ending of the game proves my point for me, there is really very little chance of the batter hitting a fly ball shallow enough that the outfielder can throw him out, but deep enough that the infielder can't make the play. This is really the only reason you have outfielders at this point - for the very rare case of the in-between blooper. By bringing in another infielder you cut down on the number of ground balls that get through in the infield. You already have the infield drawn in, increases the chances a ball get through, to cut down the run at the plate, why not give yourself another glove? Would it have changed this game? No, not at all. But I would argue that it would save many more games than it would cost. You rarely see this from a seasoned manager, let alone a 37 year old under qualified guy who has only been on the job a few weeks, so I understand why Hinch went with convention. But the non-convention may have saved him the game.

If enough managers do this and it starts saving games it will become conventional wisdom. There is a similar evolution occurring in the NBA when teams are up by 3 with little time left on the clock, they foul the other team before they can get a shot off. Its a bit counter intuitive, but its the right move to make, and someday so will bringing in the 5th infielder.

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