How to make a trendy preseason prediction (Atlanta I am looking in your direction)

Unfortunately, I started this blog one week into the baseball season so I will have to pass on making any sort of preseason predictions (except that the Tigers will eventually win a game, or so I hope). However, I will take this time to breakdown the thought process behind making a preseason prediction. There are two types of preseason predictions (I will focus manly on the second type):

1. The predictions made by Joe Anyone - these will not be seen on TV, read on the internet, or listened to on the radio. These tend to be very safe and reasonable predictions. Joe Anyone has the Red Sox and the Mets meeting in the World Series. Joe Anyone may be from Cleveland and choose the Indians or live Arizona and really like the Diamondbacks, but generally Joe Anyone chooses the teams he/she really believe will make it to the World Series. I would venture to say that Joe Anyone does a better job at predicting the World Series than our prognosticators in group 2.

2. The predictions made by an expert that will be seen by the public. These are the guys who write for espn, yahoo, foxsports, cnnsi, cbssportline, etc, etc. These are also the guys on Sports Center and Baseball Tonight. These guys cannot pick teams they think will make it to the World Series (even though this is exactly what they are being asked to do). For the most part group #2 does not have the Mets and Red Sox in the world series, that's far too obvious, that's what Joe Anyone does, and we all know these prognosticators are paid because they know much more about baseball than Joe Anyone. Its actually a pretty crappy situation to be in. This group has to put much more time into their preseason picks because their picks must satisfy two criteria.
1. Their pick cannot be who Joe Anyone picked
2. You have to still believe them. Them must have the "Sneaky Trendy Pick".
Group 2 loves the Atlanta Braves (they are 2008's #1 group 2 team). The Atlanta Braves are the perfect choice to make the world series in 2008 if your pick is going to be seen by millions. They are a very solid team, well balanced, a good mix of veterns and younger players, etc. However, they are also the 3rd best team in their own division (let alone the entire NL, although one could argue they are the 3rd-4th best team in the NL). Even though they are running 3rd in their own division you wouldn't be totally surprised if they in fact did make it to the World Series. That is why all of the experts go on TV and give you the Braves, is not their fault, they have to, if they gave you the same 2 teams you had, then you wouldn't listen to them. This phenomena is not baseball specific - just look at Charles Barkley picking the Utah Jazz to come out of the West in the NBA, everyone who had a #3 seed winning the NCAA tournament, or everyone who is going to be really excited about the Arizona Cardinals come August.

There are also second tier group 2 picks. These are "teams that will surprise in 2008". For 2008 these are the Reds and Rays. However, I am not sure how they can surprise when every expert has picked them as the teams to surprise.

Feel free to leave any preseason predictions in the comments (you can predict from group 1 or group 2)